This week's snapshot: The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.53% for the week of May 28, 2026, per Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey — up from 6.51% the prior week. The 15-year fixed rate sits at 5.87% (up from 5.85%) — see our 15-year vs. 30-year mortgage comparison for the payment and total-interest tradeoffs. A year ago the 15-year averaged 6.03%, so shorter-term rates have eased slightly year over year. The Federal Reserve has held its benchmark rate steady through the spring and markets are pricing little to no easing in 2026, leaving rates range-bound in the low-to-mid 6% area.
Today's rates by loan type
Different loan programs carry different rates. Government-backed loans (FHA, VA, USDA) often offer lower base rates than conventional loans, but they come with mortgage insurance costs that affect your total APR. Here's the full breakdown for the week of May 28, 2026.
| Loan type | Rate | APR | Change (wk) | Monthly P&I ($320k) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-year fixed | 6.53% | 6.67% | ▲ +0.02 | $2,029 |
| 15-year fixed | 5.87% | 5.94% | ▲ +0.02 | $2,678 |
| 30-year FHA | 6.24% | 7.09% | ▲ +0.03 | $1,968 |
| 30-year VA | 6.12% | 6.34% | ▲ +0.02 | $1,943 |
| 30-year USDA | 6.23% | 6.39% | ▲ +0.03 | $1,966 |
| 5/1 ARM | 6.62% | 7.34% | — flat | $2,048 |
| 30-year jumbo | 6.77% | 6.84% | ▲ +0.02 | $2,080 |
| 30-yr refi | 6.78% | 6.92% | ▲ +0.04 | $2,082 |
Rate vs. APR: The interest rate is what you pay on the loan amount. The APR includes the rate plus lender fees, mortgage insurance, and other costs — it's the true cost of borrowing. Always compare APRs across lenders, not just interest rates. FHA loans show a big gap between rate and APR because of the required mortgage insurance premium.
Rates by credit score — how your score affects your rate
Your credit score is one of the biggest factors in the rate you'll receive. Here's how today's rates break down by credit score tier for a 30-year conventional loan.
30-year fixed rate by credit score
The difference between a 760+ score and a 620 score is 1.45% in rate — which translates to about $310 per month and over $111,000 in extra interest over 30 years. If your score is below 740, improving it before applying could be the most valuable financial move you make. See our full guide on credit scores for buying a house.
See how today's rates affect your payment
Enter today's rate into our calculator along with your home price and down payment
Use the mortgage calculatorWhy rates are sitting where they are
The 30-year fixed has spent the spring of 2026 grinding sideways in the low-to-mid 6% range, edging up to 6.53% in the week of May 28 from 6.51% the week before. The story behind that stability is the Federal Reserve: after a series of pauses, the Fed has held its benchmark rate steady and signaled it is in no hurry to cut. Fed-funds futures are pricing little to no easing for the remainder of 2026, with some traders even allowing for a hike if energy-driven inflation broadens out.
Mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury yield far more closely than they track the Fed's overnight rate, and the MBA expects the 10-year to hold above 4% through year-end. As long as Treasury yields stay elevated, the floor under mortgage rates stays firm — which is why forecasters see the 30-year stuck between 6% and 6.5% rather than retreating toward the 5% range many buyers are waiting for.
There is a sliver of good news in the term structure: the 15-year fixed at 5.87% is actually lower than it was a year ago (6.03%), so buyers who can carry the higher monthly payment of a shorter term are getting a relatively better deal than 30-year borrowers. For everyone else, the practical takeaway is unchanged — waiting for significantly lower rates is unlikely to pay off in this environment.
Mortgage rate forecast for 2026–2027
Expert rate projections
| Period | Fannie Mae forecast | MBA forecast | Average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 (now) | 6.40% | 6.50% | 6.45% |
| Q3 2026 | 6.40% | 6.40% | 6.40% |
| Q4 2026 | 6.30% | 6.40% | 6.35% |
| Q1 2027 | 6.20% | 6.30% | 6.25% |
| Q2 2027 | 6.20% | 6.30% | 6.25% |
Sources: Fannie Mae Housing Forecast and Mortgage Bankers Association Forecast (May 2026). The MBA expects the 10-year Treasury to stay above 4% and 30-year rates to range between 6% and 6.5% in 2026. Forecasts are subject to significant uncertainty.
The bottom line: both Fannie Mae and the MBA expect rates to remain in the low-to-mid 6% range through 2027. A meaningful drop below 6% is not expected unless inflation falls significantly or the economy weakens enough to force Fed rate cuts.
This means that if you're shopping for a home and find one you love at a price you can afford, waiting for lower rates is likely not worth it — especially with home prices continuing to rise in most markets. You can always refinance later if rates drop.
The state of the U.S. mortgage market in 2026
Rates are only half the story. To understand where you stand as a borrower in 2026, it helps to see the shape of the whole market — how much lending is happening, how the mix is split between people buying homes and people refinancing, and what that means for competition and pricing. The Mortgage Bankers Association's 2026 outlook gives us the clearest picture.
After two of the slowest years for mortgage lending in a decade, 2026 is a modest recovery rather than a boom. The MBA projects total single-family origination volume of $2.2 trillion, up about 8% from the roughly $2.0 trillion in 2025, spread across 5.8 million loans (up from 5.4 million). The growth is being driven less by falling rates than by something more durable: more homes coming onto the market.
| Segment | 2025 (est.) | 2026 (forecast) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total originations | ~$2.0T | $2.2T | ▲ +8% |
| Purchase volume | ~$1.36T | $1.46T | ▲ +7.7% |
| Refinance volume | ~$675B | $737B | ▲ +9.2% |
| Loan count | 5.4M | 5.8M | ▲ +7.6% |
The single most important shift for buyers in 2026 is on the supply side. For three years, the "lock-in effect" — millions of homeowners sitting on 3% pandemic-era mortgages and refusing to sell — kept inventory historically tight and propped up prices. That logjam is finally loosening as life events (jobs, family, retirement) force moves regardless of rate. The MBA notes that rising housing supply is expected to flatten home-price growth, which, combined with rates that have stopped climbing, is slowly improving affordability even though rates themselves aren't falling.
Refinancing tells a quieter story. With most existing mortgages carrying rates below today's 6.53%, there is no broad refinance wave — and there won't be one until rates fall meaningfully. Instead, the MBA expects periodic bursts of refi activity during the brief windows when rates dip, much like the on-and-off pattern of 2025. If you bought in 2023 or 2024 at a rate in the 7% range, those dip-windows are the ones worth watching with our term comparison and a standing rate alert.
What this means for you in 2026: Lending is growing modestly, more homes are reaching the market, and price growth is cooling — but rates are range-bound in the low-to-mid 6s, not falling. Practically, that favors buyers who shop the supply rather than wait on the rate. Lock when the home and payment work; refinance opportunistically if a dip-window opens later.
5 ways to lock the lowest possible rate
How to beat the average
Raise your credit score above 740
The biggest rate drops happen at the 740 threshold. Even moving from 700 to 740 can save you 0.25% or more. See our guide on improving your credit score.
Compare at least 3–5 lenders
Rates can vary by 0.5% or more between lenders for the exact same borrower profile. Getting multiple quotes is free and can save you tens of thousands. Include at least one credit union, one online lender, and one traditional bank.
Put 20% or more down
Larger down payments get lower rates because they reduce the lender's risk. At 20%, you also avoid PMI — saving $100–$300 per month. See our down payment savings guide.
Consider a 15-year term
15-year rates are currently 0.60–0.70% lower than 30-year rates. If you can afford the higher payment, you'll save enormously on interest. See our 15 vs. 30 year comparison.
Buy discount points
One discount point costs 1% of the loan amount and typically reduces your rate by 0.25%. On a $320,000 loan, one point costs $3,200 and saves about $52/month. If you plan to stay 5+ years, points usually pay for themselves.
Frequently asked questions
- Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) — the weekly published rate benchmark every figure in this guide is calibrated against.
- Fannie Mae — Housing Forecast — monthly forward-looking forecast referenced in the rate-outlook section.
- Mortgage Bankers Association — Forecasts and commentary — industry-side forecast cross-check for our rate-trajectory discussion.
- FRED — 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average — historical series we use for any multi-year trend statement.
- Federal Reserve — Open market operations — official record of federal funds rate decisions that flow through to mortgage pricing.
- MBA — Mortgage Finance Forecast (origination volumes) — source for the 2026 origination, purchase, refinance, and loan-count figures in the market-state section.
Last reviewed: May 28, 2026. See our data sources and editorial methodology for how we research every article.